Best Defensive Center

So I stumbled upon this Jamie Dixon Q&A from Scout.  There's the typical stuff in there - his thoughts on Pitt's upcoming trip to Ireland, practices, and the new version of the NCAA Tournament.  But buried near the bottom was this nugget, when asked how Gary McGhee and Dante Taylor were progressing:

“Gary, is easily the best center we’ve ever had, defensively. That’s half the game right there. That can’t be underestimated..."

Go ahead, let's hear it.  Let it all out.  Done laughing yet?  Well the fact is when you go through Pitt's roster of centers since Dixon or even Howland has been there, who was really a better defender?  I'm not the biggest McGhee supporter in the world and I think all this talk about him dominating the summer league has elevated him to a stauts that, frankly, I don't think he belongs in.  He's a fine center who has without question gotten better, but no superstar.

That said.

If you can get past the bobbles with the ball, the somewhat awkward-looking footwork, and the occasional misses from close-range, you'll find a competent and very sound defensive center.  And his ability to defend without fouling is amazing.  Consider this - he didn't foul out of a single game last year and reached four fouls only twice.  He averaged just over two fouls per game, but was physical enough to average almost two blocks a game.  How many starting centers can say that?  Plus, no other center in the Howland/Dixon era topped his 1.7 blocks per game that he achieved last season.

Here's the lineup of true starting centers in the Howland/Dixon era:

DeJuan Blair - Clearly the best of the past decade and a pretty good defender.  His rebounding ability was unbelievable, but as far as being a face up defender, I give McGhee the edge over him.  Blair's phsyical play sometimes led to foul trouble, which forced him to the bench. His shorter frame also allowed taller players to shoot over him.

Aaron Gray - I don't know if there's any other adjective to more adequately describe him than 'good.'  He was a solid Big East center, and improved greatly over his time.  But I think McGhee is a little quicker on his feet and better defensively than Gray was.

Toree Morris and Ontario Lett aren't even in the discussion.

Gary McGhee may not be Pitt's best center and may not play in the NBA as Blair and Gray currently are.  He also hasn't shown the ability to score or rebound as well as either yet.  But as a man-to-man defender, while at Pitt, he may be the best the school has seen in the past decade.

Recruiting Thoughts

A writer from Scouts, Inc. for ESPN.com ranks the Big East basketball classes and Pitt is sixth.

Every now and then when I see these stories, it really gets me to thinking. To be honest, I don't know what amazes me more. Pitt's inability to consistently land higher-rated recruits or their ability to get the most out of the ones they do get.

One argument I'm sick of is the one that says Pitt won't get these types of players until they get to a Final Four. Please. Rutgers landed All-American Mike Rosario didn't they? Through Huggy Bear, Kansas State lured Michael Beasley. Marquette is 2nd on this list and even Providence (yes, THAT Providence) managed to land two ESPNU Top 100 players and ranks ahead of Pitt.

Now it's not as if Pitt has gotten chopped liver. Over the past four years, ESPN has ranked them in the top 25 three times. But they've had no top 15 classes and only one McDonald's All-American in the past ten years.

How much do these rankings mean? In reality, not all that much. DeJuan Blair was ranked somewhere around 50th, but was one of the best players in college basketball as a sophomore. Devin Ebanks of West Virginia was rated below Truck Bryant and Kevin Jones, but is the only one leaving early for the NBA. But for Pitt to not be able to land more top ranked players is kind of a head scratcher to me. Look at the factors:

1. They've put together nearly a solid decade of winning basketball with several Sweet 16 appearances and an Elite 8. Not among the best of the best, but certainly in that next tier. Record-wise, Pitt has been one of the nation's best.

2. Pitt has great facilities and plays in a new building.

3. The Oakland Zoo provides one of the best atmospheres in all of college basketball.

4. Pitt regularly plays on national TV.

5. It's also a very solid academic school.

When I see teams that have not even had a sniff of Pitt's recent success recruiting higher ranked players, I've got to admit I just don't get it. And I'm not so sure the argument of Pitt not allowing star players to 'showcase' themselves applies. To the contrary, I think Pitt would be a school a top recruit could look to and see himself leading an already good team to a championship.

Part of it is due to location - I get that. Great players staying close to home. But what this should really tell you how much of a factor relationships can play into recruiting.

All Pitt can really do is keep plugging away and the more they develop a reputation for sending players the NBA, the better things should get. Pitt has sent four players to the NBA in the past five seasons (DeJuan Blair, Sam Young, Aaron Gray, and Chris Taft) and Brandin Knight had a sniff appearing in one game in 2004-05 with the Rockets. If Gil Brown ever gets this consistency thing down, perhaps he'll get a look and you've got to think Dante Taylor can get there.

Pitt has had a lot of success, which is why their lack of top recruits is all the more puzzling.

No Mo

Potential Pitt recruit Maurice Walker apparently couldn't wait for Pitt anymore and has committed to Minnesota.

As of this interview where's pictured in a Pirates hat only a few days ago, Pitt was one of his three favorites and the only school he had visited.

It hurts a little that Pitt couldn't make room for him, but if incoming recruit J.J. Moore qualifies academically, then Pitt will already need to get rid of a current player. With Walker, that would have increased the casualty list to two. And you've got to believe that teams really don't like essentially taking away a scholarship from someone. It looks bad and gives future non-blue chip recruits reason to worry about being 'asked nicely' to transfer.

It also hurts because he was a top 10-15 center and from reports, had previously shown some fairly strong interest in coming to Pitt. Pitt's 2010 recruits aren't frontcourt players and they could have used a little size. And with Pitt's history of developing some NBA frontcourt players in Aaron Gray and DeJuan Blair, Walker may have been a good fit.

But the incoming class should be good, so it's hard to quibble. Fact is, having too many good prospects and not enough spots is actually a good problem.

Debunking Myths

Okay, so I was passively browsing today and stumbled upon this gem by a guy I really like:

There can be no doubt who the most improved player in the Big East Conference is this season. I would go so far as to say Gary McGhee is (my emphasis, not his) the most improved player in the history of the Big East Conference.

If McGhee doesn’t win the award, there should be an investigation. In fact, if he doesn’t win it unanimously there should be an investigation.

Not may be, IS. *Sigh*

Now, I'm a Bob Smizik fan. He takes it on the chin when Pirates fans (yes, I am one) get their panties in a bunch when he criticizes their hopeless franchise and is accused of being pessimistic, well, all the time. But this is, in a word, preposterous. Gary McGhee has gone from being horrendous to serviceable. If you want to call him your Most Improved Player for this year, fine. But to say he should be a lock? Then to take it 8,358 steps further and say he's the Most Improved Player in the history of the Big East?

Look, I'm not going to give you the 101 reasons I'm sure I could find why Bob has this one wrong. I'll merely point to one easy fact: McGhee is in the same boat as Ashton Gibbs to a degree. His numbers have gone up due to a big increase in minutes. Gary McGhee is averaging about 3.6 times more minutes than he had last year (6.7 in 2009 to 24.1 in 2010). This is a type of projection often used in the NBA for a stat called ____ per 48 minutes (the ____ meaning, scoring, rebounding, etc or whatever the researcher is trying to project). It's a simple extrapolation to see how productive someone might be if they played more.

Using that formula, let's see how much he actually 'improved', at least numbers-wise:

His 2009 numbers were 1.2 ppg / 1.5 rpg. Taking the 3.6 times factor above, we see that last year, his numbers should come out to 4.3 ppg / 5.4 rpg. His current numbers? 7.4 ppg / 7 rpg. So he's scoring about three more points per year and grabbing an extra rebound and a half.

Now go to a guy like Brad Wanamaker. He is getting approximately 1.7 times as many minutes as last year (32.7 to 19.0). Taking his numbers, we see only slightly less improvement. With the extra minutes, his output this year should come out to about 9.8 ppg / 5.6 rpg / 3.57 apg. His actual numbers are 12.3 ppg / 6.1 rpg / 4.4 apg.

Look at Ashton Gibbs who is getting about 3.3 times more minutes (35.5 to 10.7). Taking 3.3 to last year's ppg total of 4.3, we come out to 14.2. His actual output is 16.4 - an improvement of about 2.2 ppg of what he should have.

So what we end up with for actual improvement over and above what each player should be getting based solely on the extra minutes they're getting is:

McGhee - 3.1 ppg / 1.6 rpg
Wanamaker - 2.5 ppg / .5 rpg / .83 apg
Gibbs - 2.2 ppg

Looking elsewhere, you CAN say that McGhee's shooting (65% to 52%) has greatly improved. I also believe he's a better player, less awkward, and his defense is better. Based solely on the numbers, you can reasonably say that McGhee is Pitt's most improved player. But I'm not sure I'd call it a slam dunk - let alone a slam dunk for an undisputed conference most improved player OF ALL TIME. Gibbs has had a similar spike, albeit slightly less that McGhee. But doesn't leading your team in scoring count for slightly more? In addition, factor in that Gibbs is playing out of position at the point and that he's had more of a load thrust on him that McGhee. And...well you get the point. In my eyes, it's really about a wash.

And as far as that nonsense about most improved player in the history of the Big East, all you have to do is look to last year to find a similar instance (again, at least numbers-wise). DeJuan Blair had a very minor bump in minutes from his freshman to sophomore year (1.05 times more), but managed to average much larger numbers. Based on the 1.05, his numbers last year should have been 12.2 ppg and 9.5 rpg. His actual numbers were 15.7 ppg and 12.3 rpg. Blair's shooting percentage also increased and he had a much larger responsibility than McGhee. Leaving us with these numbers above the extrapolated figures:

Blair - 3.5 ppg and 2.8 rpg

Those numbers beat McGhee's. And like I said, more weight has to be given to someone who was responsible for playing a lead role on their team (i.e. Gibbs and Blair). Now, I'm not saying it's a given that Blair was a more improved player, just pointing out how easy it is to quickly identify players who made similar strides. Most players improve at least marginally from year to year and to point to one and say something along the lines of 'There - he's the best of all time' is rather foolish.

Aaron Gray also made very similar strides from his sophomore to junior season. And those are just the Pitt guys - not to mention the entire Big East - a conference that, by the way, has been around for over 30 years.

Gary McGhee has made great strides to become a solid player, but in all actuality, likely has not even been the most improved player in Pitt's Big East history.

Checking in with the NBA

With NBA All-Star weekend here (I know...the NBA borders on a dirty word - or in this case, acronym, here in Pittsburgh), thought I'd take a quick look around the league.

We can start with DeJuan Blair getting royally, well, screwed in the Rookie/Sophomore challenge on Friday. The Grizzly Blair went for a monster 22 points and rookie game record 23 rebounds leading the rookies to a rare win over the sophomores. His output was the first 20/20 performance in the game's history. Tyreke Evans ended up winning the MVP award with 26 points, but only a handful of rebounds and assists. Evans did end up making a classy gesture, asking Blair to join him to hold the MVP trophy after the game.

Apparently one of the things that kept him from getting the award was the voting had to wrap up before the game was completed. Blair ended up grabbing six of his rebounds and four points in the last 1 1/2 minutes. Not sure exactly why they had to rush to get the voting in. I know the MVP is announced fairly soon after the game, but they can't wait like five extra minutes? Blair seemed to take it at least a little hard:

“It hurts me, man,” said Blair, shaking his head. “It really does hurt me, but it is what it is.”

Sam Young wasn't selected for the game, but has averaged a respectable 7.5 points in about 16 minutes per game with Memphis. He's scored 15 points six times this year and has gone over 20 in three games. His shooting has been pretty accurate as he's hitting over 47% of his shots.

Looking over to Aaron Gray, I was pretty sure he would get more minutes in New Orleans as he's the backup center now as opposed to being behind several guys in Chicago. But the Hornets seem to be going with smaller lineups as Gray and he's appeared in only three of their ten games since the trade, averaging about five minutes in each.

Aaron Gray Traded

Minor note here to most, but I thought it was worth at least a mention. Former Pitt center, Aaron Gray, was traded from the Bulls to the New Orleans Hornets.

This move will only benefit Gray, who has been a solid player when he's had time on the court. He couldn't get off the bench behind the Bulls' Joakim Noah and Brad Miller. He won't start in New Orleans who has former UCONN center Emeka Okafor, but he should be the backup center as, well, he's the only other center there. No, Sean Marks doesn't count.

I don't think Gray will ever be a star in the league, but he could develop into a double-double type of guy and maybe average around 10/10 somewhere down the line if he ever got a look at starting. People sometimes forget he's only 25.

Happy for him because a move like this will only be a good thing.

A Meaningful Scrimmage?

Normally, I'd say scrimmages are meaningless. But the blue-gold basketball game held yesterday might actually have some importance for Pitt, at least in terms of getting a feel for how players perform against real competition. Sure, they're getting plenty of that in practice, but to be on the court with actual fans in attendance had to be at least a little different.

Personally, I'd like to see March Madness back as it was briefly here in the late 90s. If top programs like North Carolina and Kentucky can do it, then we should be as well. Period.

I digress.

On this night, anyway, newcomer Chase Adams looked like the star, scoring 21 and was surprisingly accurate from 3-point range - at least for someone who was touted as a defensive player. Despite the output, though, he still sees himself as being a defense-first type of guy, which is good for Pitt:

"I definitely view myself more as a defensive player, but as of late I've been shooting pretty well," Adams said. "I've been more comfortable shooting the ball, and coach has been telling me when I have the open shot to take the open shot. I've been trying to establish myself as an offensive player as well."

In Adams, Pitt may have a real leader after the mass exodus of talent:

Long before he transferred to Pitt from a 938-student college in Louisiana, Chase Adams played for one of the top high school teams in the nation.

His Mount Saint Joseph (Md.) team had won a state-record 38 games in a row but lost to traditional power DeMatha (Md.) in the final game of the season.

The team finished ranked No. 8 in the USA Today, but Adams was inconsolable.

"He doesn't like to lose," Mount Saint Joseph coach Pat Clatchey said. "After the game, he was just like after any other time we lost. He wasn't happy."

Said Adams, "I've got a strong competitive nature, and it makes me want to win at all costs. I didn't have any intentions of losing tonight."

Not even wanting to lose in an exhibition game? A game that was so much of an exhibition that some players changed teams in the middle of the game? Sick - I like it.

Make no mistake - I don't think Pitt will be a run and gun offense. They never have been in this recent run of success and without Blair/Fields/Young, may need to be more of a defensive team than ever in order to compete. But with Adams, Gibbs, Wanamaker, Dixon, and Woodall, this team could put up more three-pointers than normal and look to score more outside than they have in the past.

One revelation that came out of the game was that Dante Taylor will play center. Call me crazy, but I think there's virtually no chance he leaves after this year for the NBA. He'd have to have a heck of a year to be considered a lock for a first-round pick. True, Pitt will need to rely heavily on underclassmen this year, but with so many guys getting minutes this year, I think he will have a hard time putting up the type of dominant numbers he would need to in order to be considered for a top pick.

No, I don't base this on the fact that he struggled in this game and had only seven shots. Just keep this in mind - Pitt has always had a tough time letting any one guy take over. Sam Young was really the only person in recent memory who could...and he had to wait until he was a junior. Streaky Carl Krauser and Chris Taft couldn't despite having maybe the most overall talent on their respective teams. A seven-foot Aaron Gray couldn't even average 15.0 ppg despite being several inches taller than many of his opponents guarding him.

Not to say that Pitt SHOULD let one player dominate on offense...and truth be told, Young may have been the closest they've had as a go-to-guy, so you can't fault the coaches in my opinion. But it will be extremely difficult for a true freshman to come in and put up the type of numbers at Pitt to warrant being a lock for a first-round pick. Pitt hasn't had a 20 point scorer and no underclassman has been able to score 16.0 ppg in this recent run of greatness. If Taylor is unable to put up dominant numbers on a team with perceivably no real stars, then I think NBA GMs would have a hard time justifying him as a first-round lock. Yes he's young and yes the potential is there, but I don't know if that's enough, seeing he wasn't a consensus top 10 or even top 15 incoming freshman nationally.

Back to the game - Ray Fittipaldo of the PG who had a live blog running for the game, has a good look at some of the stats showing just how much Pitt's departures will be missed.

The official box score shows plenty of guys had good nights including Brad Wanamaker and Ashton Gibbs totaling 36 points. I'm extremely curious to see how the rotation will end up.

And this is a little old, but Gilbert Brown is still apparently on schedule to come back at his earliest possible return date, December 20th.