Speculating, Speculating...

Is it too early to start speculating on who might be leaving the program with the commitment of center Malcolm Gilbert? 

Of course it is.

For one thing, Gilbert, like the other recruits have only made verbal commitments and will need to sign letters of intent before anything becomes official.  For another, there's no telling if all four recruits would even qualify academically.  And for yet another, someone may really want to leave the program voluntarily, opening up another spot.

And I still haven't mentioned perhaps the most likely scenario out of all those things - what if Dante Taylor leaves early for the NBA?

But say all of the aforementioned happens and Taylor sticks around.  Then what?

Well, the two players I see in the most trouble are:

J.J. Richardson - He's probably going to see less time this season with the emergence of Talib Zanna and since Gilbert is a big man, it makes it even more likely that he could go. Mix in 2012 recruit Steven Adams and the frontcourt gets really crowded. Richardson's advantage may be that if he can beat out Gilbert as a Junior next year, he'd likely be the backup center behind Taylor (assuming Taylor stays at center...I know, that's an entirely different debate).

Cameron Wright - I know, I get it.  He hasn't even played a minute for the team yet.  But this is all about speculation and besides, who else do you see that could go instead of him?  Travon Woodall?  Please.  He played really well down the stretch last season and despite not being the best shooter, is probably the team's best true point guard. Plus, with Isaiah Epps and Woodall (who really got better as the season went on last year), ahead of him, he might be struggling to get minutes. And don't forget about incoming 2011 freshman John Johnson who will be at the point or SG.

It's crazy early, but that's how I see it. I can't pick between those two because it largely will depend on how others in their positions fare over the next season. If everyone qualifies, it will be interesting to see how Dixon deals with this situation for a second straight year. From everything I hear, Dixon hates doing this sort of thing. I'm a little puzzled that he'd do it again for a three-star, somewhat-prospect center if he didn't have a good reason for it.  Maybe he thinks Taylor is gone after this season.  Maybe he knows something we don't.  In any event, he's opened the door for a world of speculation over the next year.

Talib Zanna To Get Starring Role?

No one can deny that on the surface, Talib Zanna looks like he's ready to contribute this season.

First, Zanna nearly led all Pitt players in rebounding in the Greentree Summer League, averaging almost 11. He also added in about 13.5 points per game.

Then came the trip to Ireland where Zanna was again a major factor, averaging eight points and seven rebounds per game.

But it wasn't just in game action where Zanna has impressed. Jamie Dixon says the way he's practiced will likely lead to playing time this year:

In practices prior to the visit to Ireland and in the five games the Panthers played – all victories – Dixon closely monitored the performance of 6-9 redshirt freshman power forward Talib Zanna and became convinced he’ll help Pitt this season.

“I think he’s going to play minutes. I think he’s going to be good,” Dixon said. “I think Zanna is going to give us a different look with his length and his size at the 4. It gives us another option.”

Zanna might not replace Nasir Robinson this year as the starter at the 4, but if he has a good season, he might leapfrog him next year. But even if Dixon's history of playing upperclassmen shines through and Robinson continues to start, at the very least, Zanna should see his fair share of minutes. I'd like to see him play more than Robinson if he can rebound as well as he appears to be more of a scorer.

Durand Johnson To Pitt

Pitt reeled in its third commit for next year's basketball class in SF Durand Johnson.  He was recruited by Brandin Knight.  As mentioned on ZagsBlog a few weeks back, Johnson was down to six schools.

With the departures of Brad Wanamaker, Gary McGhee, and Gilbert Brown, Pitt is expected to only have three openings, so this might be it for the 2011 recruiting class. If it is, Pitt will not have landed a frontcourt player among its three commits - Durand, G-John Johnson, and SF-Jaylen Bond. That would be the second season in which Pitt did not pick up a PF or center. It also could mean that Dante Taylor remains at center if he sticks around next season unless J.J. Richardson can take hold of that position.

As for Johnson, he's a three-star recruit as rated by both Rivals and Scout. Rivals lists him in their top 150 prospects, but ESPN.com does not, instead grading him at 91 (must be an Insider to view).

Johnson cited a familiar reason as to why he selected Pitt:

“It was just a family to me,” Johnson said. “They showed me a lot of love. It’s a great fit all around for me.”

It's interesting that you not only hear this so much during the recruting, but also when the guys actually get to the team. You always hear the players talk about family and I think the recruits pick up on that during visits, from the players, and in reading up quotes in the media by other recruits.

Johnson reportedly had more than twenty offers from schools including Georgetown, Xavier, Louisville, and Maryland, among others.

Back to the point about Pitt potentially finished with recruiting. I'm okay with it. While Pitt could have used frontcourt help, they weren't desperate for it. They still have Taylor, Richardson, Talib Zanna, and Nasir Robinson for 2011-12. If Taylor happens to bolt this season, that would open up another scholarship. Maybe Pitt felt it didn't have a strong enough shot with any of the top big men left in this class. I don't mind them going after the sure thing in Johnson.

The other option is that Pitt goes over the limit again as they did last season and someone transfers. I've heard Dixon doesn't like doing this, so for him to do it two seasons in a row might be a stretch.

Pitt Basketball Finishes 6-0 On Trip To Ireland

Pitt wrapped up the playing portion of its trip to Ireland with two final wins for a perfect 6-0.

Throughout the games, Jamie Dixon used a variety of different lineups. One can only think it was mostly done to feel out the chemistry between players - especially among the new guys. It was good to see Pitt face some adversity in the fifth game where they trailed at halftime. They responded well and came back for a 16-point victory.

So how did the players do at least stats-wise?

Gilbert Brown - 12.8 ppg

Ashton Gibbs - 12.0 ppg / 4 apg

Gary McGhee - 5.0 ppg / 5.3 rpg

J.J. Moore - 10.4 ppg

Aron Nwankwo - 0 ppg

Lamar Patterson - 4.7 ppg / 4.0 rpg

J.J. Richardson - 6.3 ppg / 4.3 rpg

Nick Rivers - .8 ppg

Nasir Robinson - 8.9 ppg / 4 rpg

Dante Taylor - 6.3 ppg / 7.2 rpg

Brad Wanamaker - 9.0 ppg / 5.8 apg / 3.0 rpg

Travon Woodall - 8.5 ppg / 3.8 apg

Cameron Wright - 3.4 ppg / 1 apg

Talib Zanna - 8.0 ppg / 7.0 rpg

Not much can be taken from these numbers but here are a few things I noticed:

- After monster performances in the Greentree Summer League, I was a litle surprised to not see McGhee dominate a bit more...especially considering some teams had smaller rosters (the South Regional All-Stars' tallest player was 6'6"). It will be interesting to see how he responds once the season gets started.  I'd guess somewhere in between these performances and his GSL performances.

- Looks like it will be hard to keep Talib Zanna and J.J. Moore off the court. By all indications, they've now played very well in both the GSL and in these games. Nasir Robinson's numbers haven't been great and I wonder if we'll see a little less of him and more of them. There are also Jermaine Dixon's minutes to account for, so I think they will each see some time this season.

- Despite being highly regarded, I can't help but think how far back Isaiah Epps might be. Unable to play in the GSL and these games will put him behind Moore and maybe even Cameron Wright. I expect Wright to possibly take a redshirt and I'm wondering if Epps will do the same.

- Gilbert Brown shot exactly 50% from the field and really only had one bad game, a 1/6 shooting performance. Here's to hoping his ups and downs will be solved, but I won't be sold until I see it. To be honest, I think anyone that had the kind of swings Gil did last season will still be susceptible to poor games once in a while. But as long as those types of games are limited, Pitt might be okay.

Let The Beatdowns Begin

Pitt basketball began its Ireland trip with a 99-54 drubbing of the Irish national team.

Not sure how big the building was, but only 1,650 attended.  Judging by photos on the website, it looks to be a pretty small gym.  Tickets were fairly cheap at around $9 (7 Euro) for adults.  Gil Brown led Pitt with 22 points including 4-6 from three-point range.  Ashton Gibbs contributed 15 and Brad Wanamaker had 12 points and 10 assists.

At first glance, it would appear that he big men, Gary McGhee and Dante Taylor (combining for 13 points and 12 rebounds) had quiet games.  But one important thing to note is that all 11 players received equal playing time.  Talib Zanna and J.J. Richardson likely saw minutes that McGhee and Taylor would have, so no need to worry about those numbers.

Here's the full box score.

It was mostly good for Pitt, who shot 56% from the field, 50% from three-point range, and forced 22 turnovers.  But the team did turn the ball over 16 times.  Though, in a scrimmage game, in an unfamiliar environment and with lots of travel and hoopla surrounding the trip, that's kind of to be expected.

The freshman, J.J. Moore, Cameron Wright, and Aron Nwankwo, were not eligible to play due to NCAA rules, but should suit up for today's (Sunday's) game. 

I'm mildly confused as the schedule listed on Pitt's website says the game with the National Team was to take place today with the team playing the Southern Regional All-Stars Saturday night.  Maybe the games have been flip-flopped.

Greentree Basketball Summer League Wraps Up

With the Greentree Basketball Summer League wrapping up this past week, I thought it was a good time to take a look back.  During the mid-point of the season, I took a look at some statistics that were out there courtesy of Rivals and Scout.  Before I provide some year-end stats, I'll again throw out the same disclaimer.  These numbers were gathered by both sites.  I've used Rivals' numbers and filled in blanks with Scout's.  However, be aware that the two sites even differed on stats for the same games.  So everything isn't completely accurate.  That said, I've filled these in the best I could and this is what I came up with:

Gil Brown - 23.6 ppg

J.J. Richardson - 10.8 ppg / 8.6 rpg

Ashton Gibbs - 22.5 ppg

J.J. Moore - 17 ppg / 5.4 rpg

Travon Woodall - 16.1 ppg / 5.0 apg

Cameron Wright - 10.9 ppg

Brad Wanamaker - 15.6 ppg / 5.7 rpg

Nasir Robinson - 11.9 ppg / 4.9 rpg (these may be incomplete)

Gary McGhee - 17.4 ppg / 10.9 rpg

Dante Taylor - 16.7 ppg / 10.9 rpg

Lamar Patterson - 15.1 ppg

Talib Zanna - 13.5 ppg / 10.8 rpg

Ashton Gibbs took home league MVP honors and he joined McGhee, Brown, and Richardson on the first team. Patterson, Moore, and Zanna landed on the second team.

You may be thinking the same thing I am - how in the heck did Taylor not land on the first or second team?  Beats me.  I'm sure they want to try to spread out the school and maybe even position representation around a bit, but I'm surprised they couldn't find a spot for him over even Zanna or Patterson.  But as I said, these numbers are almost assuredly not completely accurate, so who knows.

I'm really excited to see what Jamie Dixon does with J.J. Moore this year.  Pitt is a veteran team this season and has lots of guys that could see minutes.  But based on his summer league performance, it looks like it may be difficult to redshirt him...especially because he's a scorer - and Pitt sorely needs some of those at various points in the season.

Inside The Numbers

If you've been anywhere online over the past couple of weeks, you know that stat totals for some players have been out there and readily available through Scout and Rivals.  Both sites have done an amazing job providing quality, and more importantly, free, recaps for each game.  What I hadn't seen (at least without paying a subscription fee) is averages for players through all the games.  With that said, I spent a little bit of time compiling the numbers and figuring out averages for the Pitt players from the information out there (Nerd chants begin in 3...2...).

At any rate, what I quickly found out is that the numbers between the two sites differ.  Even in points.  For example, Rivals lists Gary McGhee with 25 points in his most recent game this past Wednesday, while Scout has him at 24.  So for the sake of argument, I've simply used Scout's numbers while filling in any missing holes with Rivals'.  Take these numbers with an unusually large grain of salt.

Here's what I came up with:

J.J. Richardson - 12.5 ppg / 7.3 rpg

Ashton Gibbs - 20.8 ppg

Dante Taylor - 15.5 ppg / 8.5 rpg

Travon Woodall - 15.3 ppg

Gilbert Brown - 23.8 ppg

Talib Zanna - 12.8 ppg / 9.8 rpg

Cameron Wright - 10.5 ppg

J.J. Moore - 14.0 ppg

Nasir Robinson - 14.8 ppg / 5.8 rpg

Gary McGhee - 19.8 ppg / 8.5 rpg

Lamar Patterson - 15.5

Brad Wanamaker - INCOMPLETE (Could not find stats from all games)

The first thing you notice is that everyone seemingly has been doing well.  Keep in mind that I don't have shooting percentages.  The other thing to remember is that the players were split up among four teams and in some cases, even some of our bench players were the best players on their respective teams.  Thus, they got more shots - far more than some might get in the regular season.

So with that said, let's look at some of the more intriguing stats:

1. Gary McGhee has been an absolute monster.  As I pointed out, though, in an earlier post about Dante Taylor, the frontcourt competition is considerably lesser than that the team will face in Big East play.  Like most, I don't see any way McGhee puts up these numbers in the regular season.  Still, his play has been encouraging.

2. Talib Zanna leads the team in rebounds with nearly ten per game.  To me, one of the underlying story lines will be to see who will step in and get quality minutes out of Zanna and Lamar Patterson.  Both were fairly good recruits and I think it's a lock that at least one of them will come in and contribute this year.

3. Along those same lines, will Nasir Robinson see fewer minutes in the regular season?  Someone's got to lose minutes in the frontcourt if Dante Taylor is to play more and if Zanna/Patterson are to contribute.  I wonder if it might be Nasir since his offense is not all that great.  If Zanna or Patterson can rebound as well, they may get the nod if they can score a little more.  Nasir may still start, but he might lose some minutes.

4. Gil leads the team in scoring.  True, this is due in large part due to a huge 37 point effort he had in the last game.  But even taking out that game and he still averaged about 19.0 points per game.  His shooting hasn't always been great (including a 6-24 effort), but it's encouraging to see his lowest point total so far has been 16.

5. Both rookies appear to be fitting right in.  J.J. Moore and Cameron Wright have stepped right in and been able to score some points.  Again, since we don't have numbers for turnovers, shooting percentage, rebounds, assists, etc. on all the games, you can't make a good determination on how well they've actually played.  But they've at least been able to score against D-1 players and both have had at least one great game in terms of scoring, reaching 20 points.

Lots of interesting stuff and still some more games to play. 

More Hoops

The first preseason ESPN/USA Today Hoops poll is out and to the surprise of virtually no one, Pitt was not ranked. They came in at #37 overall, but I would be surprised if they didn't find their way into at least the bottom part of the poll at some point this season.

Pitt's official website is offering up spotlights on some of the new players this year and has a good article on freshman Talib Zanna. One of the things that jumped out at me were the quality of schools looking at him:

That's the thing that made Pitt stand out when Zanna was looking at different colleges. The 6-foot-9 forward snagged the attention of schools all around the country, including places like Oklahoma, Colorado, Connecticut, Boston College and Georgetown, among others. He wanted to go somewhere new and exciting, where he could continue to grow. The most important thing, though, was finding somewhere he'd be comfortable.

"Pitt has a good basketball program and academics, and I liked the coaches," said Zanna, who is now fluent in four languages. "I talked with coach [Jamie] Dixon and I came to some games. I really liked everything."

The first exhibition game is THIS SUNDAY. While it's only an exhibition, it will be interesting to see how the minutes are split up. I expect to see Pitt go as many as ten deep and I'm curious to see if Pitt will try to redshirt Zanna or JJ Richardson this year.

Dante Taylor was only able to come in at #15 on Gary Parrish's list of top freshmen. A less-surprising snub may be that he doesn't have any Pitt players in his top 25 point guards (though Chase Adams may surprise him), top 40 wings, or top 40 big men.

Pitt has four players currently in the NBA. What, Chad Varga or Antonio Graves couldn't get a look?

Oh, and that NBA thing? DeJuan Blair is off to a great start with...you guessed it, another double-double, going for 14 and 11 in 23 minutes. Surprisingly it wasn't Duncan or Parker who got the bulk of the focus in the AP recap:

Parker walked back to the bench OK after a hard landing in the third quarter, leaving the game with 17 points but with rookie DeJuan Blair and the Spurs already well in command of the New Orleans Hornets in a 113-96 victory on Wednesday night.

Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said Parker simply had the wind knocked out of him after falling to the court almost horizontally following a layup. Blair, meanwhile, continues enticing the Spurs after a dominant preseason, getting 14 points and 11 rebounds in his NBA debut.

The Spurs spent atypically lavishly this summer to add veterans Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. But so far, it's been the former All-American from Pitt getting the most buzz.

"He's showing really good maturity so far," Popovich said. "You just have to give him credit. He's got a great way about him and let the game come to him."

Yeah, I may have gotten this one wrong as I criticized Blair a bit after the draft day fiasco. Based on what he's shown already finishing 3rd in scoring and 2nd in rebounding among rookies in the preseason (he also finished 1st in FG% among rookies scoring at least 5.0 ppg), if he isn't starting over journeyman Matt Bonner before the end of 2009, something is terribly wrong.

Couldn't This Have Happened Last Year

After a mini-vacation, I get back only to hear that Gil Brown apparently thought it was a good idea to get suspended. Had this happened last year, it wouldn't have been welcome news, but with a young team in need of veteran players, it's borderline disastrous. The only 'manageable' aspect is that he has a chance to be back by December 20th - before the Big East schedule begins. But while the schedule may not help them move up the RPI quickly, it's not a complete walkover. Games vs. Wichita State and then against Iowa or Texas at neutral sites could prove to be big tasks. Pitt then follows that up with the game against Indiana at MSG.

It seems like this guy is just always a step behind...with injuries, sometimes streaky play, and now this. He was really being counted on this year with such a young team and most assuredly would have been starting.

So who is going to get the start? Heck, the entire starting lineup is up for grabs. It looks like Nasir Robinson could benefit the most out of this. And yeah, it's early, but if I had to guess a starting lineup for the first game of the season? Well....

PG - Chase Adams
SG - Jermaine Dixon
SF - Nasir Robinson
PF - Dante Taylor
PF#2/C - Dwight Miller / Talib Zanna / JJ Richardson...it's anybody's guess

I'd also look for Pitt to go small (as if they're not already small enough) with a three-guard lineup at times.

I think Ashton Gibbs could end up getting more minutes than either Adams or Dixon, but Jamie Dixon's penchant for starting seniors may not get him the starting role. I expect Adams to start because I think the coaches will want to get Gibbs to SG. I also think Wanamaker and Lamar Patterson (at least until Gil gets back) will see plenty of minutes.

The front line is also completely unsolved with so many young players. I don't think Gary McGhee, the only player with ANY experience, will see much time.

And you thought football camp was interesting.