Minor Football Tidbits

Another day, another 'accolade' from a gambling site.  Pitt is picked as the odds on favorite to win the Big East along with UCONN and WVU.  I'm seeing a lot of love out there for UCONN this year.  Not sure I'm buying into it, but just remember, they did take Pitt to the wire last year - in Pittsburgh.

Speaking of that UCONN team, their local paper, the Hartford Courant has a very brief preview of Pitt.

And here's a story on QB Tino Sunseri that correctly points out he'll have help...and lots of it.  One thing caught my eye near the end of the piece:

While all expectations are that Sunseri will be up to the task, if 2009 was any indication, it won’t matter who is under center for the Panthers — they’ll be efficient and fun to watch every Saturday.

Ignoring the statement about it won't matter who plays QB for Pitt (because I don't buy that), Pitt SHOULD really be fun to watch.  If you think about last year, the team was extremely exciting.  Try to look past the loss to WVU.  Ignore the ugly effort against NC State.  And while you're at it, step right past the Cincinnati game that I only refer to as "Nova Part II."  The team was really fun to watch - Couple players like Dion Lewis and Jonathan Baldwin with a very good defense and it all equaled a talented team.  All indications point to it being another fun year.

More Football Previews

A few more football team previews out there:

Xtra Point Football has a solid preview of the team, despite calling Dan Hutchins one of Pitt's top 2011 draft prospects.  They also pick Pitt to win the Big East:

Season Prediction

Big East Champions

The Panthers enter 2010 with loads of expectations. Dion Lewis is a Heisman candidate and several players are expected to produce All-American caliber seasons including those at key positions (Lewis, Jonathan Baldwin, Jason Pinkston, Greg Romeus, Dom DeCicco, etc.). The defense led the nation in sacks a season ago and returns what could be the nation's top pass rushing duo in Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard. Both starting cornerbacks are gone, but a talented secondary will be expected to contain the Big East's more talented quarterbacks.

The offense will run the football with Lewis and Ray Graham in their backfield, but Tino Sunseri won't get the 'yeah, but he's new' treatment with Jonathan Baldwin and Mike Shanahan as targets. Sunseri's development will be eased a bit, as the duo of Lewis and Graham can carry the load quite effectively. However, he'll be sink or swim early on with matchups against Utah and Miami in September and senior Pat Bostick on the sidelines ready to take over.

The Panthers had the opportunity to take the conference with a win over Cincinnati in the regular season finale, but saw their chances at a BCS bowl game evaporate when Tony Pike hit Armon Binns for a late touchdown with under a minute remaining. The December 4 rematch may again prove the de facto Big East championship game.

And ESPN.com has their Blue Ribbon preview up on Pitt (you've got to be an Insider to view it).

Halfway Home

Well, here we are, halfway through Pitt's regular season. Hard to believe in a way, but it's gone by fast. Let's recap a bit -

To start, I'm still enjoying Pitt's three-point road win against Cincinnati. It seems the bus ride home wasn't exactly a smooth one. These two wins are bigger than many can imagine. Pitt's not only proved they can win on the road against solid opponents, but they're now effectively 3-0 in the conference. Now, I really hate to do this, but I don't see any way Pitt misses the tournament. With 13 wins already and eight games against lower-tier teams (check the schedule), I'm sorry, but it seems as if 20-21 wins is all but a certainty.

So here's to me popping the champagne cork early. I think this team is surely tournament-bound. As Chas over at Pitt Blather reminds us, there are sure to be some stumbles along the way. But this team has put itself in a good position and can afford some of those hiccups, which are sure to come.

Now, at the beginning of the season, I predicted an ambitious 23-7 record (could not predict one game as it wasn't known if we'd be playing Texas or Iowa in the early non-conference tournament). So taking that game out, to this point in the season, I've been pretty on calling for 12-2. Unfortunately, I got some of those games wrong, even though the record was right.

Disclaimers: Had I called for a prediction after the Wofford game, it would have been much worse. I also had a few other things wrong in there.

Okay, back to predictions. Seeing where Pitt is at, 23-7 might not be too bad, so I'll basically stick with that for now (23-8 with the added Texas game). So given that, what are my expectations for the team? I'll stick with simply making the tournament again. At this point, a first-round loss would be painful, but could be understandable with a young team. It's way too early to start talking about advancing in the tournament at this point.

I really have a hard time coming to grips that Jermaine Dixon and Gilbert Brown make such a difference on the team, but that indeed appears to be the case.

But not everyone is sold. Gary Parrish at CBSSportsline.com may be this year's Doug Gottlieb for Pitt fans as after the Syracuse win, he still didn't rank the Panthers.

So with that said, let's get on with the second half of the regular season - starting next week at UCONN.

A few other news and notes:

- Ashton Gibbs didn't make the cut for the Midseason Top 30 List for the Naismith Award.

- Pitt's women's team are playing the Backyard Brawl...now.

- Ashton Gibbs was named Andy Katz's Player of the Week.

- I was somewhat surprised during the Pitt/Cincy game to see that it was Pitt's only scheduled appearance on Big Monday. I wonder if they'll regret that should Pitt continue steamrolling opponents as they have been.

Looking Ahead to 2010

With the 2009 season behind us, it's not too early to look to 2010...is it? Of course it actually is, but the recaps of 2009 have been plentiful. Time to look ahead, even if it's only briefly.

The 2010 schedule will include home games against New Hampshire, Miami (FL), Florida International, Louisville, Rutgers, and West Virginia.

Road games will include Notre Dame, Utah, Cincinnati, UCONN, South Florida, and Syracuse.

Pitt loses key players Bill Stull, Dorin Dickerson, Adam Gunn, Aaron Berry, Joe Thomas, Robb Houser, Nate Byham, and Mick Williams to graduation. The team may also lose Greg Romeus to early entry into the NFL Draft.

But look at what returns:

Impact players Dion Lewis, Jonathan Baldwin, and Jabaal Sheard. Guys who should play much bigger roles like Mike Shanahan, Dan Mason, Jarred Holley, and Henry Hynoski, plus a host of others. And not to mention the freshmen class with guys like Aaron Donald of Penn Hills who may get some playing time right away.

The kicking game should again be solid with Dan Hutchins and the weakest link in 2009, the secondary, can only get better.

Dion Lewis should have another good year, but could be in for a bit of a dropoff. First off, 1,800 yards is no easy feat. Second, the passing game may struggle a bit and that should lead to more men in the box to protect against the run. Lastly, the offensive line is losing a few players and could be in for a minor transition. On the flipside, he'll be a year wiser and should be even stronger. So it could be a wash.

And, yes, there's a big hole at QB to fill. But Tino Sunseri saw some very limited action this year and will have two camps under his belt. And Pat Bostick (in my opinion, he is the slight favorite heading into 2010) has now had three years in the system. The QB play might not match what Bill Stull did this year, but if one of those two can be somewhat of a game manager and keep the turnover bug away, the team should be solid. With a run-first approach, that should make the QB's job an easier one.

Schedule-wise, it's not all that bad. Yes, there are the Utah and Cincy games on the road, which could be tough. But neither appears to be utterly unwinnable. Notre Dame should be manageable as they're losing some big-time players to the draft and West Virginia and Miami are at home. Looking at the schedule, along with looking at what Pitt has coming back, and it's hard not to envision them as a Big East contender. I fully expect them to again be in every game once again.

I'll take a split of home games Miami and WVU as well as a split of road games Cincy and Utah. I'll throw in another loss of maybe ND or South Florida and go with an early prediction of 9-3. Hopefully if those losses happen, they'll come against the non-conference foes.

Looking for 3-0

Pitt is on the verge of its first 3-0 start in nearly ten years. Every game is important, but these next two against Navy and NC State will go a long way in determining the success of this season.

The Big East games are much more important to Pitt in terms of getting to a BCS bowl, but these two will be a pre-cursor to the Big East season and the competition will surely be tougher than Pitt's first two games.

Navy gave Ohio State a major scare - in Columbus no less. They came back to rout Louisiana Tech the next week. And I'll say this about their schedule - they're playing a pretty challenging one with games at Ohio State, Notre Dame, Hawaii, and Pitt and also a home game against Wake Forest.

Yes, Navy doesn't appear to have much of a passing game, but they do enough to get by. And one of their receivers had an 85-yard touchdown on a catch and run over the middle against Ohio State (about a 35-yard pass and 50-yard run) - so they have shown the potential to beat the secondary.

With Navy's run game, they control the clock a great deal. 10 guys have already had carries this year and they have averaged about 240 rushing yards per game. I'd feel a lot more comfortable with Scott McKillop back there, but enough of these guys have been around to remember the loss to Navy two years ago.

My prediction last week was way off (mostly due to the fact that Buffalo gave up 27 points off turnovers alone) other than the fact that Pitt got a win. Prediction: Pitt 31 / Navy 20.

Quick Hitter on Buffalo

Okay, with the game only about 15 hours from the time I'm posting this, I have no intention of doing a preview of the Buffalo game. Mix in a busy week and the fact that I'm going to miss most of this game due to family commitments, and the interest level in getting a solid preview out just wasn't there.

But...

I will say this could be a tough game for Pitt. Take the fact that this game is on the road against what I believe Turner Gill called one of the biggest games in their history coupled with Pitt's penchant for losing games like this and you've got a recipe for disaster. I expect to see an exact replica of the offense last week - simple to let Stull get his feet wet, relying heavily on the running game, and small screen passes with an occasional deep shot.

The defense will want to set the tone early and help keep the crowd of it. I'm afraid that Buffalo may be able to capitalize on some of those blown secondary assignments we saw last week.

After a fairly close prediction last week, I'm going to try to get it right again - Let's go with 23 - 13, Pitt.

Full Basketball Schedule Released

Pitt's full men's basketball schedule is now out - let the predictions begin. Paul Zeise gets things started, predicting a 22-9 record and calling Pitt a bubble team. I tend to think he's basically got it right. I'm calling for 23-7 (did not predict one game - see below).

First, a few disclaimers:

1. Leaving out the second O'Reilly Auto Parts Classic 2nd round game as it's not known if Pitt will play Texas or Iowa.

2. I think Pitt could win either at Cincinnati or at Syracuse. I'll pick Cincy, but I think it could be reversed. I have a hard time believing Pitt will lose three in a row with those two games and at UCONN.

3. I've tabbed it as a loss, but I would not be all that surprised to see Pitt take down Nova at The Pete.

4. This prediction is contingent upon Gil coming back on December 20. Though they're still a pretty deep team and can probably make his loss managemeable.

I'll admit this is maybe a bit optimistic, but I think Pitt's balanced lineup (playing likely 11-deep when/if Gil gets back) will wear some teams down. The more I think about it, the more I think Pitt will surprise some folks. I think there's too much talent on this team (albeit young talent). However, Pitt is known to lose 1-2 games they really shouldn't and with a young team, that could turn into 3-4 games. So ten losses certainly wouldn't shock me.

They have four guards who are fairly experienced in Adams, Dixon, Wanamaker, Gibbs and they have two SFs in Brown and Robinson who have some experience as well. The frontcourt is the big question mark, but they've got a bunch of depth there as well - and it doesn't hurt that the starting PF, Dante Taylor, is a McDonald's All-American. If Taylor can play a lot of minutes, that leaves Dwight Miller, Talib Zanna, and JJ Patterson to back him up and cover the remaining PF/C spot. With so many guys on the team, I think McGhee's minutes will be far and few between. The only way I see him getting minutes is if they try to redshirt Zanna and/or Patterson

Without further ado:

Wins
Wofford
Binghampton
Eastern Kentucky
Youngstown State
Duquesne
New Hampshire
Indiana
Kent State
Mount St. Mary's
Ohio
DePaul
at Cincinnati
Georgetown
at Seton Hall
St. John's
at South Florida
Seton Hall
Robert Morris
West Virginia
at Marquette
at St. John's
Providence
Rutgers

Losses
Wichita State (basically a home game for Wichita)
at Syracuse
at UCONN
Louisville
at West Virginia
Villanova
at Notre Dame

Football Notes

Gene Collier wonders aloud if Tino Sunseri is deserving of the starting QB spot.

Meanwhile, Dave Wannstedt confirms our worst fears:

"[Senior] Bill Stull is the starting quarterback," Wannstedt said. "And these other guys, well, obviously we are in training camp, we have to improve. I don't think it is as much as [they] have to prove anything as much as [they] just improve every day."

Okay, so maybe that was a bit harsh. It's not that I don't think Stull should necessarily be the starter. I just wish it was as open a competition as I thought it was supposed to be.

Later in the same article, offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti appears to think it IS indeed open:

The news that Stull was called the starter by Wannstedt was a bit of a surprise to Sunseri, who said offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti is treating the quarterback position as "open competition."

"We are all trying to help each other every day," Sunseri said. "Whatever we can do to help the team is what we're going to try and do, and whoever can do it the best is going to be able to play. And coach Cignetti is very, very into that about that competition."

Wannstedt also thinks Dion Lewis is looking sharp - further possibly supporting my mild reach of predicting him as the Big East Rookie of the Year.

Meanwhile, Paul Zeise answers a question about Bostick possibly taking a redshirt in the Q&A - this is something I've thought about many times since Wannstedt burned....(I mean, used...I guess there's no good way to say it)....his redshirt.

I wouldn't be against it since they already redshirted Sunseri and can't do it again IF they are convinced Sunseri can be the backup. Why not redshirt Bostick if you can this year and allow him to have two years of eligibility? If they don't redshirt him and again burn his eligibility for a game or whatever, then I'll be convinced they are just trying to get him out of Pitt. If Stull plays most of the season and they are convinced Tino can handle the backup role, then there's no reason not to.

Dennis Dodd predicts Pitt to finish third in the conference, though he thinks a win vs. NC State could be part of a 6-0 start.

Zeise also discusses the scrimmage, Dion Lewis, and the kickers (among other things) in his blog.

Notes, Notes, and More Notes

Paul Zeise of the PG checks back in for the first time this football season and discusses the scheduling options of Michigan, Cal, and Utah.

As I stated before, I think Michigan would have been a much better 'get' for Pitt, but Utah is at least intriguing (not to mention downright scary).

The Trib has a few articles on possibly the two biggest key offensive pieces for Pitt: Jonathan Baldwin and Bill Stull.

I think it's a given that Baldwin is going to have to get more than 19 touches for Pitt to win the Big East, as predicted. The question is, can Stull get him the ball?

Brian Bennett of ESPN.com has Pitt headed to the Meineke Car Care Bowl and also notes that Aaron Berry is on the watch list for the Thorpe Award.

Dennis Dodd ranks Pitt as the 40th best team this decade - behind teams such as Iowa and Southern Miss.

Lastly, Pitt has some new gear - get a look at it here. Also, here are the new jerseys...someone doesn't like them.

What 'Chu Talkin' Bout Willis?

That was the first thing I thought of when I saw that the Sporting News had picked Pitt to win the Big East and go to the Sugar Bowl this year.

From the Pittsburgh Panthers athletics site:

In its recently released annual college football yearbook, Sporting News has picked Pitt to win the Big East Conference and go BCS bowling in 2009.

“Dave Wannstedt has the personnel in place,” writes Sporting News, which predicts the Panthers will earn a visit to New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl.

I guess it's not that far fetched, considering the successful season last year. But personally, I just don't see it happening. With QB still unstable coupled with the losses of key guys like Shady, McKillop, and Lee, I think it could be an uphill battle.

Certainly, the defense should be pretty solid and if they utilize Baldwin a bit more, anything is possible. But a LOT of work needs to be done.